UFC heads back to Las Vegas this week, highlighted by a rematch bout between lightweights Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira. Holloway (27-8) looks to defend his symbolic UFC “BMF” title. Oliveira (36-11-1), meanwhile, is coming off a submission win over Mateusz Gamrot as he extended the UFC record for most finishes (21) and most submissions (17), as he earned Performance of the Night honors. The main card begins at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from T-Mobile Arena, with CBS simulcasting from 8 to 10 p.m. ET. In the main event, Holloway is the -230 favorite (risk $230 to win $100) in the latest UFC 326 odds, while Oliveira is the +175 underdog.
The co-main event for UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira is a middleweight contest between Caio Borralho and Reinier de Ridder. With a 17-2 record, Borralho is the -290 favorite (risk $290 to win $100) to utilize in UFC bets. The preliminary card features seven fights, with four bouts among the early preliminaries. Before locking in any UFC 326 picks, make sure you see the MMA predictions and betting advice from Mike McClure’s proven computer model.
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McClure’s UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.
The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI on UFC betting. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324.
Now, the model has analyzed Holloway vs. Oliveira from every angle and revealed its top betting picks and best bets. Head to SportsLine to see them.
Holloway, 34, has been a professional since 2010 and made his UFC debut in 2012. He is a one-time UFC featherweight champion and has had three successful title defenses. He also has the third-most title fight wins in UFC featherweight division history. He became the first American to win a UFC featherweight title in 2016, when he defeated Anthony Pettis by TKO at UFC 206 to win the interim UFC featherweight championship.
Nicknamed “Blessed,” Holloway has 35 matches under his belt. He is 28-7 all-time, including wins in four of his last five matches. He has registered 12 wins by knockout, two by submission and 13 by decision. He is coming off a unanimous decision win over Dustin Poirier at UFC 318 in July 2025 in his return to the lightweight division. Check out SportsLine to see the model’s picks and analysis.
The 36-year-old Oliveira is a veteran fighter from Brazil. He has fought at the featherweight, lightweight and welterweight levels, as well as being a fourth degree black belt Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist. Oliveira earned multiple titles before moving on to MMA in 2007. He is a one-time UFC lightweight title holder with one successful title defense.
Oliveira has earned several UFC honors, including Fight of the Night four times and Performance of the Night 14 times. In 48 career matches, he has registered 36 wins, 11 losses and one no contest. Among his victories, he has recorded 10 knockouts, 22 submission wins and four victories by decision. You can only see the model’s UFC picks and analysis at SportsLine.
One of the model’s top UFC Fight Night picks: It is backing Over 1.5 rounds (+6.8% edge) in the middleweight bout of Donte Johnson vs. Cody Brundage, which returns +157. “My model shows 45.7% probability this fight goes Over 1.5 rounds,” McClure said. “The decision rate is 72% in simulation and the average fight length comes out to 2.60 rounds. Both fighters have shown they can take punishment and keep competing. The chins are there, the cardio is there, and I expect this to be a longer fight than the market is pricing in.” See who else to back here.
You can make this pick at FanDuel, where new users can also check out the latest FanDuel promo code and get $100 in bonus bets instantly at FanDuel if your first $5+ bet wins.
The model has picks for five other bouts on the UFC card. It is also backing several underdogs, as well as a UFC best bet that returns over +200. You can see who it is only at SportsLine.
Who wins Holloway vs. Oliveira, and which UFC best bet of over +200 should you be all over? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the advanced model which showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25, and find out.
See picks at SportsLine.
(Odds from DraftKings and subject to change)
Max Holloway (-230) vs. Charles Oliveira (+175)
Caio Borralho (-290) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+235)
Rob Font (+180) vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (-218)
Drew Dober (+102) vs. Michael Johnson (-122)
Gregory Rodrigues (-198) vs. Brunno Ferreira (+164)
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